Let the vacation begin!

Ready for some serious family time and relaxation this weekend - and yes, that sometimes is an oxymoron :)

Merry Christmas, everyone!!

Lazy Sunday

Feeling almost guilty about my incredible sluggishness today. Ah well, I guess even rest can be productive...

The Future of Meteorology

Very interesting post on the subject...

http://www.freshaj.com/the-future-of-meteorology

Dying for a piece of dental floss right about now

...in case you were curious. Feels like I'm growing a new tooth gap.

Still in a fog

The party last night was a blast, but I was definitely dragging today. What am I still doing up?

Christmas par-tay tonight

Should be about 40 people here. Pretty amazing that we 4 introverted adults here are hosting this! I think we'll sleep well tonight.

Happy Holidays from NOAA All-Hazards Radio!

The NOAA weather radio voice would like to wish you a happy holiday season by singing you a Christmas carol http://ow.ly/7SPKu

Miss that ISU campus

Iowa State University still has one of the prettiest campuses I've seen. Take Lake LaVerne, for example...

http://www.isualum.org/index.cfm?nodeID=16901&audienceID=1

Isaiah 38:17

"Surely it was for my benefit that I suffered such anguish. In your love you kept me from the pit of destruction; you have put all my sins behind your back."

http://bible.us/Isa38.17.NIV

We're back...

Ready to hit the ground running after a blessed 11th anniversary trip / much needed getaway!  We'll keep the Weathervane Inn on our return trip list and hope that there finally is a peaceful end to the weathervane war.

Weathervane war

Can't even explain how nice it was to get up on our on timeline this morning. Can't remember doing that since BK (Before Kids).  There is not a lack of heating here. Between the thermostat setting of 90 and the jacuzzi pumping copious amounts of steam into the air, I was sweating profusely just sitting on the bed. I can't remember that happening before. It may actually be a weight loss vacation at this rate.

On a more serious note, I want to share another simmering item: the raging controversy concerning WHO has the world's largest working weathervane. The fair denizens here in Montague, MI lay claim to this impressive distinction, while others more jaded and world-weary beg to differ.  As there are few options for food and gasoline here, I refuse to be embroiled in this incendiary topic, choosing instead to toe the local party line whenever I must take a stand - all in hopes of getting the goods and services I find myself needing.

Regardless of where this local weathervane stands in the annals of history, I can say that it was very useful this morning when Sarah and I were charting our walking course along the Hart Montague trail. The weathervane prominently indicated a northerly wind, which decided us to first take a northward tack into 30 degree temperatures and 20 degree wind chills. Given that our return was warmer and easier with a following wind, let me just say that in my book, the Montague weathervane always WILL remain the true giant among working weathevanes.

Merging Tsunami Amped Up Japan Destruction

'Merging Tsunami' Amped Up Japan Destruction | Japan Tsunami, Tohoku Earthquake | American Geophysical Union conference | http://ow.ly/1ByJNr http://ow.ly/1ByJNs

11th anniversary trip!

Heading to the Weathervane Inn in Montague.

Performance and worship

It's been interesting being involved with worship / praise teams at church these last few years. Having played music since my teens and becoming a Christian relatively recently, I've been a musician longer as a non-believer.  A great many musicians, including myself, love performing as much as just playing.  To perform implies entertaining and calling attention to oneself.  But to a Christian, everything should be done to glorify God, not oneself. As my church's Worship Arts director has remarked, it is very easy to cross over from worship to performance. 

 

Revolution OS

http://www.revolution-os.com/about.html

Just finished watching this documentary, which proves I'm a nerd. It presents yet another example of the wisdom of crowds ( http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds ) at work.

Secretive proprietary development within a fairly homogenous group (Microsoft Windows), can easily be matched or exceeded by a large heterogenous group that openly shares information (Linux).

Sticking it to the man!!

Putting up ornaments

I believe we're biased by what we belive...and don't tell me otherwise

I listened to an interesting freakonomics podcast that asks how do we know what we believe is true.
It supports my belief that the more educated one is in a subject, the more closed-minded they become to other ideas. The more energy someone takes in taking a stance, the more emotionally invested they become.  There often is pressure to conform, too. The podcast also points out that more educated people are better at finding data that supports their beliefs (confirmation bias).

One thing I found interesting was that a guest - professional skeptic Michael Shermer - treats evolution as de facto truth.  I guess it goes to show that nobody can be skeptical about everything. :)

I can relate...

...because of Ted, our Lego maven.

If Area Dad Steps On Legos One More Time... http://t.co/RX4jtZ7S

I want this camera

http://www.funnyism.com/i/epicfail/19589

Awesome Int'l Space Station footage

Aurora Borealis, city lights, lightning, clouds - very cool. http://t.co/nAj3ikza

Leapin' Sundogs (not lizards)

@ForecastWatch: Cool cloud phenomenon: "Crown Flash" and "Leaping Sundogs" caused by storm's electrostatic fields
http://t.co/TlPtKK16

Fathers

In spite of what our culture tells us, 

Isaiah 1:17

"Learn to do right; seek justice. Defend the oppressed. Take up the cause of the fatherless; plead the case of the widow."

http://bible.us/Isa1.17.NIV

Isaiah 1:18

Isaiah 1:18 NIV

""Come now, let us settle the matter," says the Lord. "Though your sins are like scarlet, they shall be as white as snow; though they are red as crimson, they shall be like wool."

http://bible.us/Isa1.18.NIV

European vacation

This article is scary accurate with depicting my trip to Europe in the summer of '87 - right before my sophomore year at Iowa State, no less! Add to the irony that I later married a classicist who could have broadened my a mind a wee bit more than I managed to do on my own.

@TheOnion: Backpack-Laden Student Trudges Slack-Jawed Past Wonders Of Ancient World http://t.co/VJKqagL4

Murmuration of Starlings

Just amazing! I learned a new scrabble word too!

Romans 8:24

"For in this hope we were saved. But hope that is seen is no hope at all. Who hopes for what they already have?"

http://bible.us/Rom8.24.NIV

Morning jam session

Iran’s religious persecution

@Heritage: The world is waking up to Iran’s religious persecution with the case of Christian Pastor Yousef Nadarkhani http://t.co/9gecVnZd

NWS modernization enhanced services

@usnoaagov: Study says modernization of National Weather Service "dramatically enhanced forecast and warning products." http://t.co/CFZDJuvY

WSJ article about weather forecasting

http://t.co/2QY05MSc

The four F's

Hope this doesn't offend, but I thought it was hilarious. Hat tip to Fail blog.
http://www.funnyism.com/i/epicfail/18807

Don't knock the weather...

Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in a while, nine out of 10 people couldn't start a conversation.
Kin Hubbard

Untitled

Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in a while, nine out of 10 people couldn't start a conversation.
Kin Hubbard

First leaf pile jumping of the fall

Lake Michigan getting colder by the day...

It's been very clear over the Great Lakes lately, which allows satellites to see some interesting features in the Lakes. Here is an interesting post about it.

It's interesting to see that the warmer water has been pushed to the western side of the lakes due to persistent winds coming more or less from the east. Lots of 50-ish waters just off our lakeshore now!

Getting ready for the East Grand Rapids Homecoming parade

Thank you for all the birthday wishes!

Thanks everyone for all the birthday wishes on Facebook!  It really has meant a lot to me hearing from all of you. Sending best wishes and blessings your way...

Panoramic shoot from front yard

Reason.com - Deaths due to extreme weather are way, way down

Interesting take on perception versus reality of extreme weather event frequency:

http://reason.com/archives/2011/09/23/dont-blame-it-on-the-rain

God's Grace

A very good reminder...

Turnage living room

A panorama of the living room shot from my iPhone and stitched together with Pano. Very cool app!

Toad capture in Gaslight Villiage

Quantum Computing

@InformationWeek: Quantum Computing: Federal Researchers Take One Step Closer http://t.co/5cjQmp4

Tired boy after the beach

Swiss Researchers Try to Make it Rain With Lasers

@slashdot: Swiss Researchers Try to Make it Rain With Lasers http://t.co/Z18lXtr

Church & politics

@GeorgeCarlinSez: If churches want to play the game of politics, let them pay admission like everyone else.

Amen!

He said to them, "Then give back to Caesar what is Caesar's, and to God what is God's." (Luke 20:25 NIV)

Does the Response to Hurricane Irene Prove Big Government Works?

@ChristianPost: Does the Response to Hurricane Irene Prove Big Government Works? http://t.co/xfQliaC

Do We Really Need A National Weather Service?

Do We Really Need A National Weather Service? | FoxNews.com
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/27/do-really-need-national-weather-ser...

Uninterrupted weekend?

Looks like I'll be getting a weekend uninterrupted by work for the first time in 5 weeks! Thanks for finally coming through West Michigan weather!
#wmiwx

Interesting severe weather event last night

Interesting severe weather event last night over Southern Lower Michigan:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/surveys/20110825_August_24th_Updated_Sever...

Preaching the Resurrection

It would have taken something spectacular like this to make 11 apostles and many others willing to be martyred...

Preaching the Resurrection August 25, 2011 "And with great power gave the apostles witness of the resurrection of the Lord Jesus: and great grace was upon them all." (Acts 4:33) There are multitudes today who believe that Christ's resurrection was a "spiritual" resurrection, insisting that the idea of a dead body returning to life after three days in the grave is completely unscientific and impossible. This was not what the apostles preached with great grace and great power, however. They would hardly have been excited about any kind of spiritual resurrection, since everyone--both Jews and the pagan Gentiles--believed in life after death. If that was their message, no one would have doubted, and no one would have cared. Even when the disciples saw the resurrected Christ, they first "supposed that they had seen a spirit" (Luke 24:37). Christ even had to urge them to "handle me, and see; for a spirit hath not flesh and bones, as ye see me have" (Luke 24:39). When the disciples finally became convinced of His bodily resurrection, they were quickly transformed into courageous evangelists, willing even to die in support of their glorious message of salvation. The resurrection was, indeed, contrary to scientific law and all human experience, and this very fact proved to them that their Lord was Himself the divine lawgiver and Author of all human experience. All other founders and leaders of human religions, ancient or modern, are themselves subject to death, but He alone has triumphed over death. Only the Creator of life can conquer death, and the resurrection proves that Jesus Christ is Creator, as well as Savior. Therefore, when we today, like the apostles of old, proclaim the resurrection of Christ, we know that His name is above every name, and this enables us also to witness with great power, in great grace. HMM Print this article | More Days of Praise articles Institute for Creation Research | 1806 Royal Lane | Dallas | TX | 75229 Powered by phplist. This email was sent to kc5nhz@yahoo.com. To unsubscribe, change your email address, or update your subscription, please go to www.icr.org/change

Women's Equality Day

August 25th is Women's Equality Day. June is Gay and Lesbian Pride Month. You do the math.

Weather pix

ICR Witnessing to Evolutionary Philosophers

Witnessing to Evolutionary Philosophers http://www.icr.org/article/6166/

TV meteorologist misses SKYWARN training

My weather weenie friends will catch this. Long story short, it's a really a wall cloud, which occasionally produces tornadoes.

http://t.co/rceAQ15

RT @stormpics  @FindTheTornado

Physical labor for a change

Took a day off from work and ended up helping my energizer bunny in-laws with the backyard fence. My job was to dig up roots and stumps. It is fun to do that kind of stuff and to see tangible results. When I worked for a landscape company prior to getting into the NWS, my favorite job was shoveling snow because I never had to worry about overheating, it was a good workout, and the results were obvious.

However, I'm thankful not to be employed in a physical labor career - not because it's "beneath me", but because the only way I can keep my racing mind from driving me crazy is to hyper-focus on more mentally challenging stuff (ah, ADHD). And of course, physical labor takes a toll on the body after a while.

Still going!

From The Band to Beastie Boys to Hot Chocolate! You gotta be kidding me!!

This & that

Crank it up!

Got a garage band one street over blasting Loving Cup by the Stones. This is so un-East Grand Rapids, but I'm digging it :)

Questioning God

This is a very hard pill for even many of us

Christian scientists to swallow...

From: The Institute for Creation Research <webmaster@my.icr.org>
Date: August 14, 2011 2:31:50 AM EDT
To: kc5nhz@yahoo.com
Subject: August 14 - Questioning God

Questioning God August 14, 2011 "Nay but, O man, who art thou that repliest against God? Shall the thing formed say to him that formed it, Why hast thou made me thus?" (Romans 9:20) Whenever one begins a question with "why," he should realize that the answer must necessarily be theological, not scientific. Science can deal with the questions of "what" and "how," sometimes even with "where" and "when," but never with "why"! The "why" questions have to do with motives and purposes, even when dealing with natural phenomena. ("Why does the earth rotate on its axis?" "Why do we have mosquitoes?") Even though we can partially explain such things by secondary causes, we finally encounter a "first cause," and then the "why?" can be answered only by God. The wise thing to do is simply to believe that He has good reasons for everything, whether we can discern them now or not. "Shall not the Judge of all the earth do right?" (Genesis 18:25). God the Creator "worketh all things after the counsel of his own will" (Ephesians 1:11), and it is our high privilege simply to trust Him, not to question Him. On the other hand, He often asks us: "Why?" "Why are ye fearful, O ye of little faith?" Jesus asked His disciples when they thought they were in great peril (Matthew 8:26). "If I say the truth, why do ye not believe me?" (John 8:46) He would say to those who question His Word. Then to those who doubt His deity, the apostle Paul, speaking in His name, asks: "Why should it be thought a thing incredible with you, that God should raise the dead?" (Acts 26:8). As the popular chorus goes: "God specializes in things thought impossible!" Our God is omniscient and knows what's best; He is omnipotent, so He can do it. He is all-loving and will surely do what's best for those who trust Him. HMM Print this article | More Days of Praise articles Institute for Creation Research | 1806 Royal Lane | Dallas | TX | 75229 Powered by phplist. This email was sent to kc5nhz@yahoo.com. To unsubscribe, change your email address, or update your subscription, please go to www.icr.org/change

another weather / fence shot

Rob - thanks for the compliment. here's another "fence" shot from earlier this year.

another shelf cloud approaching WFO GRR

Interesting times in my hometown

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/could-ron-paul-wins-the-ames...

Jesus Is Not a Serial Killer

http://m.newsbusters.org/blogs/brent-bozell/2011/08/13/bozell-column-jesus-not-serial-killer

Cut the rope in stereo

On the couch. Two itouches on each side.

Colossians 3:13

 "Bear with each other and forgive one another if any of you has a grievance against someone. Forgive as the Lord forgave you."

http://bible.us/Col3.13.NIV

Colossians 2:8

"See to it that no one takes you captive through hollow and deceptive philosophy, which depends on human tradition and the elemental spiritual forces of this world rather than on Christ."

http://bible.us/Col2.8.NIV

Franny's big day

Tomorrow morning at Madison Square Church , Franny will make her public profession of her faith in Jesus Christ as her Lord and Savior to the entire congregation and recite the Bible verses below. Praise God!!

Philippians 4:4-9
 ⁴ Rejoice in the Lord always. I will say it again: Rejoice! ⁵ Let your gentleness be evident to all. The Lord is near. ⁶ Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God. ⁷ And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.

 ⁸ Finally, brothers and sisters, whatever is true, whatever is noble, whatever is right, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is admirable—if anything is excellent or praiseworthy—think about such things. ⁹ Whatever you have learned or received or heard from me, or seen in me—put it into practice. And the God of peace will be with you.

deterministic versus probabilistic systems

One thing that is fascinating in weather prediction by computer models (i.e., Numerical Weather Prediction - NWP) is the tremendous amount of uncertainty that is inherent to the system. The basic concept of computer forecast models is first starting with an initial condition - i.e., a snapshot of the atmosphere at a given time. This snapshot is taken by combining observed atmospheric data (e.g., satellite, radar, upper air soundings) with a first guess of what the atmosphere "should" look like at that time based on a model that run earlier. This snapshot is then projected forward in time using mathematical equations that - with a balance of accuracy and efficiency - represent the physical, chemical, and thermodynamic processes that regulate the changes of the earth/atmosphere system.

Unfolding this scenario helps to explain the uncertainty. First, the initial conditions are subject to error because the atmosphere is very poorly sampled.  For example, weather balloons carrying instruments to sample the upper atmosphere are launched hundreds of miles apart every 12 hours. Second, any instrument used to measure the atmosphere has intrinsic error. Third, the mathematical equations that represent all the processes take several shortcuts that only approximate how the atmosphere evolves - otherwise, it would take way too long to perform all the calculations and get results in a timely manner. Fourth, our physical understanding of the atmosphere is limited, which make it even more difficult to model with fidelity. Fifth, and most interesting of all, the atmosphere is a system that is subject to the butterfly effect, which is a sensitivity to the initial conditions.  A slight change to the initial conditions, even well within the expected range of error introduced by the  limitations mentioned above, leads to completely different forecasts - especially further out in time.

Any single computer model weather prediction is a deterministic system - that is, it will always give the same results with the same initial conditions. Unfortunately, it can't be known a priori how accurate the initial conditions are, or how sensitive sensitive the forecast is to slight changes in the initial conditions - changes that in fact fall well within the error of the initial conditions.  In other words, there is no measure of the uncertainty associated with a forecast.  There only is a single forecast - like, say, "the high temperature will be 54 degrees on Thursday" without any mention of confidence or other possible outcomes (e.g., "there is a 70 percent chance the high temperature Thursday will be between 52 and 57 degrees"). The inherent uncertainty for a particular forecast can be estimated by running several computer models with slightly different initial conditions and/or computing methods and comparing the results. If the resulting forecasts differ greatly, then it can be assumed there is more uncertainty and less confidence with that particular forecast. If the resulting forecasts are similar, then greater confidence can be assigned to the forecast.

So, weather forecasts are best treated probabilistically since all of these uncertainties dominate. The same applies to other modeled systems like economics, traffic flow patterns, etc. BUT, this does not mean that any of these systems is driven randomly. We assign probability to that which we are unable to observe in sufficient detail. Take the Heisenberg uncertainty principle , which postulates that there are systems where increasing the precision in measuring one variable decreases the precision with which another variable can be known. For example, the more precisely we determine the position of an electron, the less we can know its momentum.  The electron HAS a specific position and momentum all the time, but we can't know these things simultaneously given our limited powers of observation.  With a sufficiently precise measurements of the initial conditions and a sufficient understanding of the system, we could know exactly where and when the marble will fall into the roulette wheel - but again, we're limited by an insufficient abiltity to observe and understand the system. Is randomness somethings that can force a certain outcome then? As R.C. Sproul eloquently described in Not a Chance: The Myth of Chance in Modern Science and Cosmology, chance doesn't cause anything. It only attempts to quantify uncertainty that stems from our limited powers of observation and understanding. The idea of chance being a causative agent is a huge part of the argument for evolution, by the way, but I'll save that for another post.

February 20, 2011 snowstorm pix

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=2112695&id=1387814228&l=287820db51

The PCA: a clustering of political and social conservatives and city center elites

I recently read a very insightful blog post from Anthony Bradley. He discusses the clustering, tribalism, and homegeneity of the PCA, which I believe is pervasive in many other denominations, too - regardless of race. All churches are full of sinners, so being exclusive goes with the territory. We as people tend to like familar settings and customs, anyway. The Christian Reformed Church, which I plan to join, certainly suffers from this type of inbreeding.  For example, we live about a mile away from Calvin College , which is the charter college of the CRC denomation and is extremely homogeneous, consisting almost entirely of white Dutch CRC kids. I believe our current CRC church (Madison Square Church) is a rare CRC exception in terms of diversity. However, as the author points out, he is focused on the rule instead of the exceptions.

Diversity is important in the body of Christ. This diversity is not just about spiritual gifts, as discussed in Romans 12:3-8 , but about God's calling that spans all cultures (e.g., Acts 10:44-45 , 8:26-40 , 11 and 13:48 ). As discussed in The Wisdom of Crowds, diversity of opinion also is an indispensible ingredient for wise decision-making.  This leads to greater independence of thought due to an absence of the conformity pressures so common in highly homogeneous crowds.

Just to be clear, the diversity of opinion I'm discussing here is not a universalism that accepts any theology or doctrine. Neither am I saying that a diverse crowd can automatically make wise decisions without prayerful consideration. Rather, I'm saying that a diversity of viewpoints brings more options to the table, which then can be lifted up in prayer.

Having a culturally diverse body of Christ is a blessing in other ways.  It is similar to the idea that opposites attract in marriage, which combines partners' strengths and keeps individual excessiveness in check.  For example, a fast paced culture such as ours here in the United States could learn a lot from a culture that is slower paced and more reflective.  Another blessing in diversity is the simple fact that it can add an interesting spice to life with varied entertainment, arts, and cuisine. It's not easy for me or most other people to leave our comfort zone, but the Bible is full of saints who did just that. This leads me to believe that we should always be listening for God's voice telling us when we should bridge the gap.

Book Review - Driven To Distraction

Driven To Distraction : Recognizing and Coping with Attention Deficit Disorder from Childhood Through Adulthood

Extremely readable and informative book. The case examples did an excellent job of showing the wide range of symptoms that can occur - including those that do not fit the stereotype. The authors were well balanced with addressing methods to mitigate the disorder without immediately jumping to the psychotropic drug route. I appreciate the time that was taken to discuss the genetics and physiology behind the disorder. Finally, I was very happy to see the authors' warning against making a self-diagnosis, which is very tempting to do right after having the epiphany of learning what probably has been going on for as long as I can remember!! I wish I had read this book when it first came out, but am very thankful that I finally could.

Espresso & bouncer :)

grpressnews: New Java Gym to offer playland for kids, coffee shop for parents: Learn more about the 5,300-square-foot childre... http://bit.ly/eP9xhN

Just how bad is this winter storm is going to be?

Social scientists have discovered that people in harm's way are far more likely to heed warnings if the impending threat is compared to a past highly memorable event. For example, the anticipated impact from a forecast flood can be compared to the effects of a relatively recent memorable flood.

With that in mind, I would like to heighten people's awareness about the expected impacts of this evolving major winter storm by comparing it to another historical event from 2008:

http://onion.com/aOuScR

Seriously though, a good source of winter storm preparedness and safety information can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/om/winter/

Praying for everyone's safety...

Don't Misunderstand Me

This Rossington-Collins Band song was on the radio when I was in 7th grade. It's still one of my favorite male/female rock duets - right up there with You're the One that I Want from Grease. Dale Krantz-Rossington is just fantastic on this tune.

Humor

Well, without going into details, here I sit in a situation that I
never thought would happen to me. It makes me realize how judgmental I
have been in the past about people in this and certain other
situations. Suffice to say, I see God has a wonderful sense of humor
sometimes when making people realize the error in their ways.

Big storm a comin' this week? Probably.

After a dud of a winter with respect to snow (Grand Rapids is 14.3" below normal for the season as of this morning), we have a decent shot for redemption this week... http://bit.ly/hjRIbx

Grease fires

If #mythbusters taught me anything, it's to not pour water on a grease fire.
Sent from my iPhone